"Predicting is hard. Especially the future."

Bob

Jim

I'll make a prediction, an unusually short-term one, that within six months there will be a Mexican drug gang-related incident in the US that will make front page headline across the country, involving some extreme violence in broad daylight in a major US city and the violent death of at least three innocent bystanders (this definition is to include any police casualties).

Jim

Subject: Prediction on number of C-17 orders.
From: James S Warniak
Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2007

I'll enter a prediction that Congress will add money to keep the line going at least one more year, for at least 10 aircraft to at total of 200 for the USAF.

Subject: Prediction on decreased gas usage
From: James S Warniak
Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 09:00:50 -0700

I will further quantify my prediction on gas usage in privately owned vehicles to say that at the end of 2007 we will have seen a trend of decreased total usage, somewhat erratic but still downward, by maybe as much as 10%. I'm guessing that successive gas price hits and supply problems have started a lot of people thinking about doing something different next time they buy a car or move, and these decisions will tend to be in the direction of more efficient cars or living closer to work or working closer to home.

Jim


Subject: 747 Advanced version.

Fri, 23 Sep 2005 09:47:41 -0700
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

One for the prediction file:

Boeing will launch the 747 Advanced version this year and will end the year with at least 30 announced orders, including passenger orders.

This note is from the head of CargoLux, a big European freight hauler.

Jim

Ogiermann said he's also hearing, through the industry grapevine, that many passenger carriers are seriously thinking about ordering 747 Advanced aircraft.

"What I hear is that they're looking for something without the huge risks of the A380," he said. "What I hear, behind the scenes, is that there's strong interest on the passenger side."

John

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
November, 2006.
Hillary will not be elected in 2008.
JE




Subject: RE: no oil
From: "Ebert, John C"
Date: Tue, 5 Dec 2006 15:47:32 -0600
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I don't see anything on the horizon that will deter Iran from developing nuclear weapons, short of a bombing campaign. And I don't think that is likely, given the current Iraq conundrum. And even if we clear up Iraq, the nation won't support a pre-emptive war against Iran.

For the vault: Iran gets a nuclear weapon by 2020.

JE

Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 14:38:30 -0500
Expires: After vote.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Back in prediction mode, I say that whoever receives the next SC nomination will also be confirmed, but will have fewer yes votes.

Into the vault it goes.

JE

Subject: RE: Robust Rovers
Date: Tue, 4 Oct 2005 11:47:00 -0500
Expires: 051009
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I think nobody finished last time. They all crashed, burned, or otherwise came to a halt.

I predict that several will complete the trip this time.

Based purely on confidence in the progress of technology rather than on any specific knowledge.

JE

Subject: Gas prices

Mon, 15 Aug 2005 08:14:00 -0500
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Just to be contrarian, I say that I'll see $1.99 before I see $3.19. (Based on prices I see here on my way to work.) We spiked to $2.59 last week - right in the middle of the range.

JE